When making predictions about the Super Bowl, people have a tendency of either focusing on the previous year’s powerhouse teams (defending conference champions for example) or teams just a cut under the level of a powerhouse team (such as teams losing a conference championship game). Those can be called the power condo teams. Once in a while a brave soul will come along that’s too smart to stay out of trouble. Thinking of teams like the Rams in 1999 or Patriots in 2001, the individual predicts one of the bottom feeder teams. We can refer to this as the power shack team that comes from nowhere and wins it all.
However if you take a look at what has happened recently, you’ll see all of these individuals have been wrong. Looking at the records of the last three teams to win the Super Bowl the year before winning the championship tells a different story. In 2008, the New Orleans Saints’ record was 8-8. In 2007, the Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-6. In 2006, the New York Giants had a record of 8-8. The Super Bowl champions lately haven’t come from the power condo, powerhouse or power shack ranks. They have come from more like the upper floor power level from the apartment ranks.
Let’s take a look at the Atlanta Falcons. In 2009, the team went 9-7. It was the first back to back winning seasons for the franchise ever. It’s easy to see the 2008 11-5 as a breakout season and then see last year as a set back or step back for the team run by Mike Smith. However, maybe the step back really was part of growing pains that have been well navigated.
That would make a lot of sense. This solid young team is after all ed by Matt Ryan a budding star quarterback. True, Ryan during his sophomore year suffered a step back. His completion percentage fell to 58.3 from the previous year’s 61.1., while yards per attempt dropped to 6.5 from a previous 7.9. As a rookie in 16 games he had 11 interceptions. Last year in 14 games he threw 14 interceptions, a big factor in the decrease in his passer rating of almost seven points.
However, like many of the other Falcon players Ryan was battling a toe turf injury during the season. He did struggle uncharacteristically at times with reading defenses, however he showed no signs of a psyche that was damaged or any panic. In summary, Ryan is fine.
The Falcons offensive line is also fine. If Jerious Norwood and Michael Turner, the running backs, are able to stay healthy the backfield for Atlanta should be fine as well. In terms of the receivers, Roddy White, star wideout, and Tony Gonzalez, tight end and future member of the Hall of Fame, are also fine. The offense in short, is quite solid. With all 2010 eleven starters returning and either new intriguing backups coming on board (Mike Johnson, rookie guard from the third round, and Joe Hawley, rookie center from the fourth round), or returning (Harry Douglas, electrifying slot receiver coming back from knee surgery), things can only get better for the Falcons.
Orchestrated by Mike Mularkey, offensive coordinator, Atlanta’s offense has an identity that is quite distinct: a ball controlled attack centered on power runs coming from sets withtight ends. The Falcons have practically ideal personnel for pulling of this classic, bruising approach.
The last Super Bowl champions, of course, had their runs at the title all spearheaded by their defenses coming alive. In 2009 the defense of the Saints was oriented towards the big plays. The Steelers defense in 2008 stayed healthy. In 2007 the defense of the Giants was a dominant pass rushing unit. What about the 2010 Falcons defense?
Smith last season ran a zone based mundane scheme using mundane players. In the NFL today that doesn’t work. The scheme for Smith isn’t changing. Hopefully the players have improved. The Falcons do have young talent that has joined the team. There’s a good chance that somewhere there will be improvements. The odds are good that this will happen.
Peria Jerry, defensive tackle from last season’s first round, returns after a knee injury that caused him to miss his rookie year. It is expected that Sean Weatherspoon, first round rookie, at outside linebacker will be a three down instant presence. Cornerback free agent Dunta Robinson is an elite stopper, who should be able to help the Falcons stop the big play, something that plagued the team last year. In 2009 Atlanta allowed 55 passes that were twenty yard plus, trailing only the Rams by one play for the NFC worst. Wiliam Moore, hard hitting safety from the second round, has the opportunity of competing as a starter, following knee and hamstring problems that left him on the sidelines a year ago for all except two games.
Do the Falcons have the makings for contending for the Super Bowl? Let’s take a look: last year having modest success; no high expectation burdens; distinct defensive and offensive identity; star quarterback; improving main weaknesses. So far things sound pretty good. Then there’s the stable ownership and leadership, another trait shared by the Giants, Steelers and Saints. Arthur Blank, owner, and Thomas Dimitroff, general manager, have great chemistry in how they run the program. They may even have chemistry that is Super Bowl caliber.
Offense
Before getting too far ahead, I think we can all agree Matt Ryan is one of the NFL’s star quarterbacks. Or an emerging star at least. All the elite passer traits are possessed by Ryan: accurate strong arm: athleticism for moving in the pocket and on occasion fleeing it; poise and tough with bodies surrounding him; football IQ for anticipating throwing lanes and reading defenses. Last season, Ryan didn’t trust always what he saw. His college track record and working with Bill Musgrave, renowned quarterback coach, should mean that he has learned already from his mistakes. If once again Ryan has to miss time, Atlanta has Chris Redman as a reliable and smart backup.
It’s important in 2010 for Ryan to bounce back. Although the offense is centered around the power run, Atlanta will be relying on the young quarterback to help with winning games. Michael Turner, running back, needs a large volume of touches for maximizing his effectiveness. Turner won’t be getting enough carries in every game. Anyway, it’s not a sure thing he is a star still. True he is only 28 years old and it’s only been two years that he’s been a featured ball carrier. However he lacks lateral agility and ability for changing direction quickly or gaining yardge through breaking tackles, which are all characteristics of a short career for a runner.
The depth of the backfield is excellent though. When Jerious Norwood is healthy, a touchdown can happen at any moment. The unique game of Norwood’s has never been polished. Therefore Jason Snelling, downhill interior runner, will see plenty of playing time off the bench.
Ovie Mughelli, fullback is light on his feet for a lead, traditional blocker. Atlanta relieves heavily on Mughelli as well as Justin Peelle, backup tight end, for forcing mismatches in the running game, mostly through a line that is unbalanced. Tyson Clabo right tackle, has somewhat limited athleticism but is always willing to fight. When Peelle enters the game, he lines up quite often next to Sam Baker, the left tackle. Baker is the 2008 first round draft pick. When healthy he is serviceable, however he need to improve his pass protection. The cleverness of Ryan in the pocket frequently masks the mediocre pass blocking of the front five.
Justin Blalock, 333 pound left guard, is a mauler who has the ability to getting to the next level, although only in a straight line. The practically nonexistent lateral mobility of Blalock along with his contract that is expiring could be one reason why Dimitroff used a third round selection on Mike Johnson, powerful run block guard from Alabama. However it’s also possible that Johnson has brought in to challenge Harvey Dahl at some the point, who is an nonexplosive but gritty right guard. Todd McClure, center, with his 128 starts in a row tied Keith Brooking’s franchise record. However his sub par strength can’t be hidden by his craftiness forever. Joe Haley fourth round pick, is being groomed to replace him.
When it comes to their passing game, Atlanta needs to be careful that they don’t focus too much on Tony Gonzalez. At the age of 34 Gonzalez is still one of the elite tight ends. He runs excellent routes and his a tough receiver. It is very tempting to force the football to him. However this limits the aerial assault scope and mitigates Roddy White’s field stretching abilities. White, with three seasons in a row of catching 80 or more passes and accumulating 1,100 yards, has established himself as one of the top all around receivers in the league. Michael Jenkins, the no. 2 wideout, in traffic is effective but slow. If Harry Douglas, slot receiver, is able to bounce back from his knee injury that canceled his 2009 season, the Falcons will have another source of speed to go along with White. If that doesn’t happen, they will stick with their sets with two tight ends.
Defense
Mike Smith and Dimitroff know that if they can fix their pass defense, which ranked 28th last season, that they can certainly propel the Falcons into the 2010 postseason. The team tied for 26th place last year in total sacks with 28. Many were expecting the Falcons during the off-season to obtain a pass rusher.
The Falcons instead are gambling that the dip of veteran John Abraham going from a sack total of 16.5 in 2008, down to only 5.5 in 2009 was a fluke, with the veteran of 11 years still having the fluid athleticism and startling quickness for being a star. The bet isn’t a bad one, although there are dire consequences if they lose it. No other Falcons player is close to being able of getting double digit sacks. It is expected that Peria Jerry, defensive tackle who attacks the gap, will give the inside a boost, however an unproven young player with a knee that has been surgically repaired can’t be relied on. Atlanta knows this, which is why during the third round Corey Peters, defensive tackle, was selected.
Jonathan Babineaux has initial quickness necessary for penetration. However his letter grade as a player for overall performance would be a B. Given that C is the average, that isn’t an insult. Babineaux will be playing on nearly every down. The spot at defensive tackle next to Babineaux will see a rotation of Peters, Trey Lewis and Thomas Johnson (Lewis and Johnson need to learn how to better untangle from double teams).
Forget about Jamaal Anderson, defensive end from the first round, getting pressure. Anderson gets to the quarterback less frequently than many people get divorced. In three years he’s had only 2.5 sacks. However he is excellent in defending against the run. Athletic backups Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury off the edges are both very quick and on third down can replace Anderson. However we are talking about drawing from the third string now.
Atlanta was comfortable with not addressing the pass rush after acquiring cornerback Dunta Robinson, although there are observers that see the seven interceptions by Robinson in the last five years of him playing in Houston and claim he can’t play. However the true aficionados of football see the instincts and startling quickness of Robinson while in man coverage which makes them realize he is one of only a few true NFL shadow defenders.
In 2004, as a rookie, Robinson had six interceptions. In the Falcons zone-based scheme he will be getting more opportunities for making plays on the football. Across from Robinson the starting job is wide open. It would have been filled by Brian Williams. However officials from the team are skeptical that he will be able to recover from his torn ACL. He was given a 1.6 million, one year contract with substantial roster bonus incentive. Brent Grimes, given that Williams is questionable, will be examined closely. Grimes has a tendency of surrendering about as many big plays as he is able to make. Last year he led the team with six interceptions and his athleticism is loved by the coaches.
One would think that recent third round draft selections Chris Owens (2009) and Chevis Jackson (2008) would be leading candidates for starting positions. However so far the coaches have shown more of a willingness to play their free agents from the streets than either of the young guys. At least Jackson appears to have settled at nickleback. Owens needs to work on getting stronger.
Assuming that William Moore second year pro, can stay healthy he should be able to unseat Thomas DeCoud eventually at the free safety spot. DeCoud is athletic, however when it comes to coverage he is average (particularly from the mental standpoint) and Moore is a ferocious hitter. Erik Coleman, strong safety, is one of the game’s best tacklers in the open field.
Of course, most of the tackling will come from the linebackers. Curtis Lofton, middle linebacker, surprisingly has become versatile enough for staying in the lineup during third down situations. The awareness of Lofton’s improves each week, and when it comes to his fundamentals there’s nothing to really criticize. He’s not really a play maker sideline to sideline however. That’s one of the reasons why Dimitroff selected Sean Weatherspoon in the first round. Mike Peterson, the veteran, is flexible enough for playing anywhere in the scheme, leading to debates of where Weatherspoon is going to line up. It will probably be the strong side. He was drafted by the Falcons just as much for his coverage ability. It will be difficult for Stephen Nichols, last year’s starter, to find a role coming off the bench after his pass defender struggles. For Coy Wire it’s the same thing.
Special Teams
From any distance, Matt Bryant is reliable. However no one has ever thought of him as one of the money kickers. Michael Koenen, the punter, needs improvement from his 2009 36.3 net average per kick. For the return game, Atlanta’s coaching staff most likely will be giving the nod to Harry Douglas, who can be electrifying. However if they aren’t sure about Douglas staying healthy they can always turn to Eric Weems, who is steady and calm.
Bottom Line
To spark Atlanta’s defense, only one or two play makers may be needed. If that occurs, there are enough pieces on offense to flourish. However, the Falcons may still be one or two players short of being a Super Bowl caliber contender.
Predictions: 2nd place in the NFC South
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